Updated 2:45 p.m. SundaySteve Gregory' blog at weather Underground: "The GFS continues to forecast that Wilma will be transformed into a powerful Nor'Easter that will pound the SE
portions of New England on Tuesday. All the hurricane models have brought the track further west, and NHC did the same -- but they are clearly not buying into a big storm for SE New England."

10:33 p.m. ** SEVERE CAT 4 HURRICANE WILMA OVER COZUMEL -- EXPECT LANDFALL NEAR FT MYERS MONDAY AT 2PM EDT ** -- Steve Gregory, Weather Underground

2:15 p.m. Yucatan Ahorita! is the blog of "Working Gringos in Paradise" in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. The latest: Friday morning Noon: " we've had a few rain flurries in the past few hours but as I speak, the sun is peaking through the very hurricane-ish clouds."

Oddly, a sign at WalMart -- their grocery store -- reads "Our apologies but due to the laws of the Yucatan, we will not be selling beer, wine or liquor today."

No explanation. Do laws say that a nearby hurricane is reason to shut everybody off?

1:42 p.m. The Orlando Sentinel has started a hurricane blog.

9:59 a.m. I expect I'll be updating this frequently, but I want to get these links out there while we await the 10 a.m. reports.

Steve Gregory at Weather Underground disagrees with the computer models of Wilma (** Hurricane Wilma still cat 4 -- man versus machine forecasting tonight! **):

CAT 4 HURRICANE WILMA IS NOW HEADING DUE NORTH !
WHILE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE MORE EMPATHIC THAN EVER'
THAT WILMA WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN

...All the models are projecting Wilma to turn inland across Cozumel Friday afternoon, then slowly meander its way northward to off the coast Sunday, and then reach the SW coast of Florida late Monday. The intensity forecast all reflect this type of track and timing - effectively bring a CAT 1, borderline CAT 2 to Florida. NONE of the models call for a CAT 3 storm. And the NHC forecaster, based on the northerly track of the storm right now, and the data from the NOAA G-IV jet that did an upper air surveillance around 00Z -- according to the NHC forecaster, does not support Wilma going inland for much time at all...

The knowledgeable gang at the HurricaneCity message board agrees, and a poster called Gambit7 offers a succinct explanation of what's going on with Wilma (It's a question of a few miles....):

Rarely does a storm pose so many variables within a very small amount of distance.

The type of FUEL Wilma will have is basically dependent on about 20 miles difference. If she stays east of Cancun, the water is DEEP, HOT, and SWIFT. She could sit out there for days, reorganize, turn and hammer FL with a vengeance. There will be no upwelling, because the water constantly moves at 4kts. The only salvation is interaction with land somewhere.

Then again, if she goes just NNW of cancun, the water gets REALLY shallow and the current goes away. She'll choke herself to death.

Lastly, every blip of speed (or lack thereof) at this point makes the FL landfall a bit more north or south relative to the trough. I say speed because direction really isnt as important right now, except for intensity.