7:21 PM Tue, Nov 04, 2008 | Permalink
By Sheila Lennon  Email this author | Email this entry |
Huffington Post has published Exit Polls 2008: See The Full Results, citing a Democratic source.
(More exit polls coming soon. We explain why you shouldn't trust them below.)
The head to head exit polls just were sent to the Huffington Post by a Democratic source. These are traditionally unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt (see: Kerry's winning margins in 2004). For what it's worth, they project a big night for Obama in several of the key swing states.
The info you get reads suspiciously like a hard College Boards problem:
NORTH CAROLINA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
-- 22% of voters were African American (26% in 2004) and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago.
-- White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.
-- 11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.
-- Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.
Do we have information to solve this? Are all the natives truth-tellers? Are some of the new voters also white voters? What do old voters say?
Of course the people who don't want to talk to pollsters vote, too, and they're not in these pictures. Neither are those who weren't the eighth voter, in rigid selections, and those who didn't look approachable, if the pollster selects a representative sample.
A personal warning: I saw the 2004 raw exit poll data, and chose not to even whisper about them. They showed President Kerry, easily, and were not believable.
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